Which is to say that we will now only have an election once every four years, if Harper sticks to the election law (that he already ignored once).
With a frankly pathetic 61.4% of registered voters turning out and the Conservatives slightly budging their percentage of the vote up to 40%, the Conservatives won a majority, picking up the seats they needed when the Liberal vote collapsed in Ontario, with every Liberal defeat turning into a Conservative victory. With only about a 2% boost in the popular vote, the Conservatives picked up 19 seats. Such is the way of our first-past-the-post system.
The whole campaign was odd in how it started out with people predicting nothing much would change, though there was some thought given that the Conservatives might get a majority. As it turned out, a lot changed:
- the Conservatives got a majority, passing the 155 seat threshold to get (with current projections) 167 seats
- the NDP, thanks to a huge surge in Quebec, got a record number of seats (102) and for the first time ever will form the Official Opposition
- the Bloc Quebecois collapsed, going from 49 seats to 4
- Elizabeth May’s strategy to focus on getting elected vs. having a national campaign was successful, getting the Greens their first MP, even if their share of the popular vote dropped by half
- the Liberals, going in with 77 seats, got reduced to a mere 33 and less than 20% of the popular vote — their worst showing ever
Ignatieff and Duceppe both lost their seats, with the latter immediately announcing he would step down. Ignatieff will probably quit or be given the boot shortly.
Mostly, though, I’m glad the ads are over.
UPDATE: As of the morning after, Ignatieff has announced his resignation as leader.
2008 and 2011 results side by side (charts courtesy of CBC):
