random predictions

Predictions for 2014 (from 1964)

I came across another article about predicting the future purely by coincidence today. Or was it? (Yes, it was.) In this case it’s Isaac Asimov predicting the world 50 years hence during the World’s Fair of 1964. Asimov was a pretty smart guy so let’s see how he did on a few select predictions.

Full article on openculture.com

“[T]he world population will be 6,500,000,000 and the population of the United States will be 350,000,000.” And later he warns that if the population growth continues unchecked, “All earth will be a single choked Manhattan by A.D. 2450 and society will collapse long before that!” As a result, “There will, therefore, be a worldwide propaganda drive in favor of birth control by rational and humane methods and, by 2014, it will undoubtedly have taken serious effect.”

This is fairly accurate in terms of the numbers, though only China had the drive for birth control with its one child per family program. And while the population of the world is bulging, it’s currently 7.2 billion, which the world is sort-of managing (so far).

“Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books. Synchronous satellites, hovering in space will make it possible for you to direct-dial any spot on earth, including the weather stations in Antarctica.”

“Direct dial”, heh heh heh. Otherwise this is a pretty good description of VOIP, ereader/tablet/Internet technology. This one is a bit of a gimme, though, sort of like predicting color photographs in 1910.

“[M]ankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014.”

This is half-accurate and half-old man yelling at kids to get off his lawn (which is to say, an exaggeration). Ennui and shallow over-stimulation are contributing to messed up people, young and old(er) alike, no doubt. In another prediction Asimov foresees automation and machinery leading to an excess of leisure time, suggesting these may be contributing factors to the above. Lingering high unemployment and the growing gulf between the wealthy and everyone else are just as relevant, probably. I wonder, too, what the psychological effects of living in megacities are over the long term.

“Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence.”

Yes, Asimov disses robots. This prediction is not really accurate in 2014. Robots are common (in factories and on assembly lines) and are very good at the limited tasks given them. The SkyNET/take-over-the-world robots still have a ways to go. This means we still have time to prepare so I count it as a good thing.

I will conclude with a prediction for 2064:

Flying cars.

No, just kidding. Here’s a real one:

The world will not be using fossil fuels in 2064.

Now I just need to live to be 100 years old to see if it comes true. I’m feeling spry halfway there. I think I can do it!

It’s now 2014

Flying car joke goes here.

Meanwhile, gizmodo has an article from the January 6, 1910 edition of the Cedar Rapids Evening Gazette featuring 41 predictions on what the world would be like in the 21st century. These were predictions made in good faith (presumably). The full list is at the link but here’s a few I liked:

  • Cure for cancer. [Sadly this remains elusive]
  • Discovery south pole. [This happened the following year,  in 1911]
  • Create living organisms by artificial means. [Artificial insemination!]
  • Phonograph records substitute for letter. [This never happened but we now have the even less bulky email instead]
  • Settle question of communication with Mars. Wonderful astronomical discoveries. [We called, no one was home]
  • Power of mind over matter a practical science devoid of superstitious elements. [Telekinesis would mean never having to look for the TV remote again but this remains the realm of fiction or all my telekinetic friends are holding out on me]
  • United States constitution rewritten, providing improved means for conservation of original democratic principles. [LOL?]
  • Produce rainfall at will. [Seeding clouds makes this sort-of true]
  • Roads of nation paved. [Dream big, 1910! The prediction today would be: Roads of nation re-paved.]
  • Cure for and elimination of tuberculosis. [Nope]
  • Movements for universal language, universal religion, universal money. [Esperanto, (none), Bitcoins. That’s 0 for 3.]
  • Construction largely of concrete and metal or newly discovered materials. [Yep, especially for large buildings]
  • Electricity will move world’s wheels. Later radio-activity may substitute. [I don’t think radioactivity means what they thought it means]
  • Terrors of war so multiplied by death dealing inventions, chances of war minimized. [LOL?]
  • Population of United States based on present ratio of increased, 1,317,547,000 at opening of twenty-first century. [Off by about a billion. Maybe if they had developed baby machines.]
  • Machinery largely substituting manual energy, will promote pursuit of finer arts and sciences; give ample opportunity for relaxation and amusement; emancipate wage slaves. Three-hour work day predicted. [This is charmingly optimistic. And horribly wrong.]
  • Photographs in natural colors. [Yes!]
  • Women’s political equality. [In the U.S. women got the vote in 1920]
  • Government control of corporations. [Got this one backwards]
  • Animated pictures in natural colors, transmitted by wireless. [TV and/or Internet]
  • Natural colors reproduced in newspaper pictures. [Yes, although newspapers themselves are kind of going extinct]
  • Reduction of elimination all forms of gambling, including stocks. [LOL?]
  • Moral, intellectual and economical awakening in dark sections of Africa, China a world power. [“Dark” sections of Africa? Racist! Good call on China, though.]
  • Due to universal education, with special reference to hygiene, doctors and drugs be largely eliminated; average age to be near 60 years; men taller, stronger, higher intelligence and morals. [This one is funny because after all the lofty changes they still only expect people to live to 60.]