I came across another article about predicting the future purely by coincidence today. Or was it? (Yes, it was.) In this case it’s Isaac Asimov predicting the world 50 years hence during the World’s Fair of 1964. Asimov was a pretty smart guy so let’s see how he did on a few select predictions.
Full article on openculture.com
“[T]he world population will be 6,500,000,000 and the population of the United States will be 350,000,000.” And later he warns that if the population growth continues unchecked, “All earth will be a single choked Manhattan by A.D. 2450 and society will collapse long before that!” As a result, “There will, therefore, be a worldwide propaganda drive in favor of birth control by rational and humane methods and, by 2014, it will undoubtedly have taken serious effect.”
This is fairly accurate in terms of the numbers, though only China had the drive for birth control with its one child per family program. And while the population of the world is bulging, it’s currently 7.2 billion, which the world is sort-of managing (so far).
“Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books. Synchronous satellites, hovering in space will make it possible for you to direct-dial any spot on earth, including the weather stations in Antarctica.”
“Direct dial”, heh heh heh. Otherwise this is a pretty good description of VOIP, ereader/tablet/Internet technology. This one is a bit of a gimme, though, sort of like predicting color photographs in 1910.
“[M]ankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014.”
This is half-accurate and half-old man yelling at kids to get off his lawn (which is to say, an exaggeration). Ennui and shallow over-stimulation are contributing to messed up people, young and old(er) alike, no doubt. In another prediction Asimov foresees automation and machinery leading to an excess of leisure time, suggesting these may be contributing factors to the above. Lingering high unemployment and the growing gulf between the wealthy and everyone else are just as relevant, probably. I wonder, too, what the psychological effects of living in megacities are over the long term.
“Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence.”
Yes, Asimov disses robots. This prediction is not really accurate in 2014. Robots are common (in factories and on assembly lines) and are very good at the limited tasks given them. The SkyNET/take-over-the-world robots still have a ways to go. This means we still have time to prepare so I count it as a good thing.
I will conclude with a prediction for 2064:
Flying cars.
No, just kidding. Here’s a real one:
The world will not be using fossil fuels in 2064.
Now I just need to live to be 100 years old to see if it comes true. I’m feeling spry halfway there. I think I can do it!