Book review: Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions

Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our DecisionsPredictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions by Dan Ariely
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Dan Ariely is an academic who writes in a very accessible manner, drawing on anecdotes and personal experience to flesh out the numerous case studies he has conducted in his pursuit of trying to explain why people often engage in irrational–yet predictable–behavior. Although some of the humor misfires a bit when he assumes the reader is at the same station of life he is for maximum effect (straight white male) it’s never ill-intended so I was able to roll with it.

Ariely’s methodology is not to simply analyze the case studies of others but to conduct numerous experiments of his own, using people drawn from the public (both willingly and sometimes more covertly), particularly university students. In these experiments, he demonstrates the principles that drive us to make decisions, ranging from what people order in a restaurant or bar based on what others order first, to how enticing free money (with no strings attached) is to an increasingly distrustful public. He also covers the placebo effect and other behaviors that have no apparent rational basis.

In doing so he draws some conclusions on how we can be better aware of the circumstances that trigger irrational responses so we can better control how we react and offers a warning that collectively we may be teetering toward a level of mistrust with institutions that may be very difficult to restore, the downside of which will be more division, cheating and indifference to the welfare of others as we look out for ourselves.

Although some of the possible conclusions are bleak (and may seem more plausible now in 2017 than when the book was originally published in 2009), Ariely retains a hopeful tone throughout. He clearly loves his work and has great fun in trying to puzzle out what makes people act the way they do. This comes through abundantly in Predictably Irrational, making the book an easy recommendation for those looking to gather some food for thought on behavioral economics and the morality and rationality of people in western culture.

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And on the third day…I was tired

It’s the third day of the month. A few things to note:

  • it is the first day of the spring semester. I know, it seems odd to refer to it as the spring semester when it starts in January but it ends in April, so it kind of balances out
  • it was very busy today
  • I now have a lifelong hatred of projectors
  • well, maybe not lifelong but at least a week long
  • the sidewalks that have not been shoveled are basically sheets of ice; I observed several people slipping but none actually ended up flat out, so that’s a positive
  • I was too tired at lunch to write or work on writing-related stuff, so I surfed
  • same thing this evening; I’m allowing myself this one day as an exception since I’m just getting into the swing of things after a few weeks off
  • I have been pretty good on snacking today, having resisted several plates of cookies and other treats
  • I have over 16,000 steps today, which was my usual average back before The Fattening began–an encouraging sign
  • 17 days to go until Inauguration Day. Will we find Bobby in the shower and realize this has all been a crazy dream? Here’s hoping!
  • I’m going to be finishing up “The Box on the Bench” by popular request. I love the idea and parts of the story but it needs some major reworking. I haven’t decided if I’m looking forward to this yet or not.
  • I’ve gotten full value on the “damn snow” tag this past month
  • the forecast is calling for snow showers on Friday, followed by rain, followed by more snow showers, with temperatures going up and down not unlike a rollercoaster. This means at least a few more weeks of snow/ice/slush/some form of cold horror on the ground. This also means more time on the elliptical and/or treadmill!

The elliptical and old men bathing

Today I finally remembered what exercise felt like. With a fresh layer of snow falling on New Year’s Eve and a forecast that calls for either clear skies or yet more snow, it’s looking iffy for running outside any time in the next few weeks (which will make it more than a month overall, kind of boggling for this region, really).

Instead of continuing to lament the icy conditions and eat Bugles, we headed to the Canada Games Pool. After soaking for a bit in delightfully warm swirl pool, I changed into my usual running gear and headed upstairs for the first exercise in weeks. It turned out all of the treadmills were occupied by people still determined to stick to their New Year resolutions (this will change dramatically in the next week or two), so I opted to use the elliptical instead.

I cleverly remembered to track the elliptical workout on my Apple Watch (and got a shiny badge for it) and was surprised that it and the machine seemed to be in almost perfect agreement on calories burned. The machine gives you a variety of pre-set workouts to choose from. Given that I am fat I chose “weight loss” and began 30 minutes of walking in place.

The first ten minutes went by without concern. After that, I started to sweat and my legs felt funny, as if they had turned to marmalade. I kept on and the marmalade feeling went away, replaced by a more general sensation of muscles being used in ways they were not used to. Which is to say, they were being used.

While everything seems fine now, I suspect that come the morning my legs will eagerly reminding me of the thirty minutes of action I put them through today.

Here are the stats, straight from the elliptical display (I think the distance may be miles):

Distance: 2.37 miles (?)
Calories burned: 260 (I sprinted at the end to get to a nice round number)

The Apple Watch recorded more calories, in part because I forgot to stop the workout for about five minutes after. Sayeth the watch: 374 calories, with a BPM of 154 BPM.

Also, when we first entered the swirl pool I swear the average age of the men (and it was exclusively men) using it was 90. On the one hand, it was nice to see so many gray old men out and being active (sort of). On the other hand, it felt a little weird to be the young guy at 52. Eventually, some younger guys showed up and even a few women, too. One guy was busy dunking his Apple watch in the water. I hope it was a Series 2 or he’s out $500.

Overall the experience went well and I look forward to doing again in our new frozen wasteland that once allowed people to run outdoors.

Monthly weight check-in, January 2017: 165.9 pounds

As part of my renewed weight loss regime I’ll be reporting on my spectacular progress at the start of every month.

As this is the first month there is no spectacular progress as of yet but soon there shall be!

Weight: 165.9 pounds
Goal: 145 pounds

Required weight loss for goal: 20.9 pounds

If I lose a mere two pounds per month I’ll hit my goal two months early. Easy peasy!

2017 in review (one day in)

Here is my review of 2017, less than 24 hours into the year. This is part of my “get in quick” campaign for the year, to make sure no task is left until it’s too late.

Good

  • Donald Trump is still not officially president
  • no new snow
  • coughing less, feeling a bit better, more energetic
  • had yummy fresh bread with blueberry jam and tea

Bad

  • only 19 days until Donald Trump is officially president
  • existing snow is now getting all crunchy and slippery
  • would prefer to already be healthy rather than just improving
  • resisting the urge to put all food into my mouth is not easy

Ugly

  • yes, I ate a few Bugles–but only a few!

In conclusion, 2017 is okay so far.

Compelling screens and virtual hard copy

Here are a few things I found while browsing the internet* today. I’m not linking back to the source material but there’s a good chance using one of those fancy search engines may get you there.

On a review of a monitor: “The most compelling thing about this display, of course, is its screen.”

I would hope the most compelling part of a monitor would be its screen. I suppose if the stand was built out of moon rocks or something that might be even more compelling than the screen, but let’s face it, there aren’t many monitors with moon rock stands out there.

On an article on blog writing tools: “Want a hard copy of this blogging tools list to take with you wherever you go? Sign up here [link], and you’ll get it in your inbox within a week.”

I would be very curious to see how the author manages to get a hard copy (physical sheets of paper) delivered to a person’s inbox (virtual email receptacle). Perhaps the author is too young to remember when everything was hard copy. Here’s a suggested rewrite:

Want a printable copy of this blogging tools list to take with you wherever you go? Sign up here, and you’ll get it in your inbox within a week.

This will be either my last post of 2016 or one of my last posts of 2016. I promise to be kinder and less sarcastic in 2017. Promise!

 

* yes, technically I mean the world wide web; I’m covering my butt here because of the pedantry in this post

2016 in review: In which some cosmic entity laughs at all of us

2016 was an interesting year in that ancient Chinese curse sort of way.

Here are my high and lowlights of the year.

The Good

  • work is fine, if busy and a bit stressful; I assumed a temporary leadership role for a month with zero preparation and came out intact
  • started and finished the year without any running-related injuries
  • recovered nicely from an injury in the late spring and ran all through summer and into fall
  • also did not let falling almost literally on my face keep me from running when I tripped big-time on a run in August
  • an entire year without Stephen Harper as PM, yay!
  • Star Trek Beyond was better than the trailers suggested–not great, but a pleasant surprise
  • kept writing regularly on this blog with minimal gaps
  • took part in my eighth consecutive National Novel Writing Month contest
  • did not fall while out in the snow
  • all medical tests came out fine, including the dreaded poo-on-a-stick

The Bad

  • I started the year around 170 pounds and vowed to get down to 150 by year’s end. As of October 13th, I was 153.7 pounds–within reach! As of today, I am 165.9 pounds. I am now only within reach if someone suddenly bursts through the door and performs liposuction on me. This is very disappointing and I resolve to do better in 2017. The main culprits were a) lack of running b) lack of walking (I typically walk about an hour each day) and c) no change in diet. Apparently I ingest more calories than I burn off most days. I’ll be eating more sensibly and exercising more in the year ahead.
  • four significant snowfalls in December. This is weird and unnatural for the lower mainland. Stop, snow!
  • ended the year with a sore back (since recovered) and a cold (still ongoing)
  • running routine fell apart in mid-October due to lack of light after work and a bad cold; still working on putting together a new routine, which is complicated by the above-mentioned snow
  • 60 million Americans voted for Donald Trump, possibly the least qualified person to ever be nominated by a major party; thanks to the inane electoral college system, he won, despite getting 2.8 million fewer votes than Clinton–now the world gets to experience what a narcissistic, bullying, ignorant, sexist, venal, racist manchild is like as president. Thanks, America!
  • floundered in NaNoWriMo 2016 at about 10,000 words in. My vow if I do it again is to outline and plan like never before (because I usually never plan or outline)
  • fiction writing limped along and sputtered out by year’s end–I have taken some steps to address this for 2017

The Ugly

  • I now know that tens of millions of Americans will literally vote for anyone (or possibly anything) as long as the desired tribal affiliation is attached (either an R or a D)
  • it really seemed like a lot of celebrities died this year; some probably felt they had targets on their backs by year’s end
  • terrorism became the favorite means of nihilism–a discouraging and depressing trend that benefits no one and nothing
  • racism and nationalism are surging everywhere. It really feels like we are entering one of the darker phases of humanity.
  • polar ice caps continuing to melt; climate change is happening regardless of the feelings of deniers

I’d say 2017 couldn’t possibly be worse but in fact, it can! Here’s hoping it won’t be.

And good riddance to 2016.

New Year’s Eve 2016: A room full of paper and more damn snow

Here are two images to look over as the end of the year draws to a close.

The first is from the room adjacent to the parking garage of the building, where all garbage and recycling goes. This was taken on December 26:

merry recycling 2016
Merry recycling!

A little celebrating and exchanging of presents, as you can see. On the plus side, what a responsible group of people we are for recycling everything. Just ignore the overflowing dumpsters.

A few days of rain and clear skies wiped out the snow that also fell on December 26, so five days later, this is now happening:

more snow december 31 2016
And one more snowfall for 2016 whether you like it or not. Ho ho ho.

Yet more snow.

The forecast is calling for a five-day reprieve after this and then at least four (!) days of snow after that. It’s like I was secretly moved to the Arctic Circle.

I look forward to eventually, possibly running outside in 2017.

Make mine clicky: a mini-review of the MacBook Pro 2016 without touch bar

MacBook Pro without touch barThis post was made on a MacBook Pro without touch bar because I don’t need a stinking* touch bar, especially not for $400 extra.

There are a few things about the new MacBook Pro I remain unconvinced about but here’s a short list of my current pros and cons.

Pros

  • the screen is gorgeous
  • the touchpad is gigantic but doesn’t seem to be picking up false positives so far
  • the SSD is fast and general performance seems fairly brisk, even as it continues to index things
  • it’s reasonably light and thin
  • space gray looks spiffy
  • I can finally stop comparison-shopping laptops for awhile

Cons

  • only two USB-C ports. Stop being cheap, Apple, especially on things you’re selling for $1899 Canadian
  • Processor and WiFi should both be better for the price

TBD

  • the butterfly mechanism used in the keyboard. It has very little travel (which is not a big deal as I don’t mind low-travel keyboards) but it’s also rather clicky, something I don’t really care for on a laptop.
  • battery life. I haven’t used it long enough to really judge but reports indicate most people are getting around 5-7 hours instead of the promised “up to 10 hours.” Seven hours would be fine most of the time for me but more is always better.

Now that I have the laptop I must write great things on it. Great things indeed. Soon.

* actual touch bar likely does not produce any odor

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My two best friends at year’s end, NyQuil and NeoCitran

A dismal year is nearly over but there’s still time for more celebrity deaths to pile up like cord wood. In the past week alone George Michael, Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds have all died. The deaths have happened so often that I am nearly expecting to find a celebrity death story every time I visit the CBC News website (just checked–none so far today).

For myself, I am happy to still be kicking, even if the winter break from work has been marred by a sore back the first week and a cold the second week (which I am still fighting). NeoCitran and NyQuil have been my best pals, one offering comfort by day, the other by night. I hate that I am taking them, but have to admit modern medicine is pretty spiffy in masking how horrible you might otherwise feel.

I even went for a walk today. Most of the sidewalks are bare, but there’s still copious snow around. It’s been weeks and it is silly. They are forecasting a return to sub-freezing temperatures in the week ahead, with more snow still on tap for tomorrow, New Year’s Eve. Because nothing says a safe night out like driving on New Year’s Eve in a snowstorm.

I’m staying home and hiding under the covers.

If all goes well I may at least be healthy enough to go to the pool by the end of the week. I’m penciling in a run outside sometime for early spring when the last of the snow has finally melted.

Blog update: December 2016

I’ve done a few tweaks to the site to make it more appealing to me and the bots that visit:

  • simplified color scheme (header is now white), for a more spartan look that is all minimalist and such
  • changed the logo from a cartoon image of me to a cartoonish image of me (I will change this periodically)
  • changed the tag “bad design” to a category
  • added Writing prompts as a category
  • added Lists as a category (I need to add a bunch of posts to this; the criteria is that the post must be centered around a list, not simply include one
  • done some experimentation with Font Awesome in titles and posts to add visual interest. For example, a book review could have a book icon that says, “Hey, this is probably a book review!” Like so:
  • started tossing in more images to again make with the visual flair. You can never have too much flair, as we know.
  • changed the titles to a cheerful green to make people happy for visiting
  • continued to scrupulously avoid the use of emoji or emoticons

I’ll continue to make more tweaks in the new year. I’m also considering moving the site to a dedicated host that would allow me to spend less time on the plumbing and more time on writing inane posts.